When the President of Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki, and the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed, signed a peace agreement on 9 July 2018, there was jubilation. Full restoration of diplomatic relations was promised; the border would be open to trade. Families and friends would be reunited and the fear of war would become a distant memory.
Eritrea has been no stranger to war. The 30-year ‘liberation struggle’ took 100,000 lives, and led to effective independence from Ethiopia in May 1991. But peace was short-lived. Two years later, 100,000 more people died in a border dispute. That was followed by an 18-year ceasefire during which readiness for war remained constant.
To this day, every Eritrean citizen over 18 is subject to indefinite military conscription. Out of a total population of about five million, around 300,000 are drafted into the army for some 20 years (most spend their time building roads, digging mines or teaching children). A UN commission declared it ‘mass enslavement’ in 2016. Many younger people choose to escape: more than 12 per cent flee across the border to seek asylum abroad.
While the peace deal lowered the chances of Eritrea and Ethiopia fighting each other, both states are now targeting Tigrayans, just across the border into Ethiopia, since the Tigray provincial government came into conflict with Abiy Ahmed in November 2020. Researchers at the University of Ghent report nearly 2,000 civilian deaths and the widespread use of rape as a weapon of war.
Three years on from the peace deal, the border between the two countries is closed again, despite cordial relations. With no legal opposition or free press in Eritrea, it’s impossible to know with certainty what comes next but many believe Isaias seeks some form of union – at least in economic and military terms. Meanwhile young refugees still pour into Sudan, food is scarce, worse so since coronavirus, and many are hungry.
