View from Brazil illustration by Kate Copeland.

In March, Brazil’s Supreme Court officially charged former President Jair Bolsonaro with a long list of offences including plotting and attempting to stage a coup following his 2022 electoral defeat. Opponents, allies and most political analysts believe a conviction is most likely. The key question now is whether he will actually serve time in prison.

The far right in Brazil’s National Congress have proposed a bill to grant amnesty to all those involved in coup attempts between 2022 and 2023 – a move that would benefit Bolsonaro. However, even if passed, the bill is expected to be struck down as unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, potentially triggering another political crisis.