When Azerbaijan launched the latest blow in a centuries-old conflict by invading Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, Armenia was set on the path to a break-up with its historical ally, Russia. Struggling to fulfil its regional commitments amid the war in Ukraine, Russia had in many ways become an undesirable, unreliable partner. The 44-day war in 2020 and the nine-month blockade that led to Azerbaijan’s conquest of the 95 per cent Armenian-populated territory – with no Russian mediation to prevent it – confirmed the fears of many Russia-sceptics in Armenia.

US, European and Armenian officials have since flocked to one another’s capitals to negotiate a diversification of alliances, seeking new security and economic partnerships, such as the nearly $291 million aid package granted by the European Union in April. Western leaders hope this shift will undermine Russia’s position as the chief power in the Caucasus.