When South Sudan gained its independence in 2011, one of its intellectuals wrote that the country was ‘only slightly more than a geographical expression’. It illustrated the new state’s extreme fragility: governing required the leaders of the victorious Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) to turn into an effective ruling party – the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). Central to the current conflict is the leadership’s failure, especially in 2013, when President Salva Kiir was challenged by his then-deputy, Riek Machar, over his lack of development policies.

The wider crisis reflects the lack of effective institutions at all levels of government: limited accountability with a weak parliament; no effective opposition parties; moves to intimidate the media, and a lack of security. There is also a growing perception of a corrupt oil-rich state that is neglecting the general population.